DwtS In-Season Update: 10-16-06

With Sara Evans's withdrawal from Dancing with the Stars, there's a good chance that no one will be eliminated this week. But that doesn't mean it doesn't count. Some couples could get a boost from a strong performance, while for others, a bad routine could signal the beginning of the end. Here's where I'd guess the remaining teams stand, pre-performance.

5. Joey Lawrence & Edyta Sliwinska
Their first place finish during week two may have been a fluke. Since then, they've finished in the middle of the pack. Last week, four couples tied for first place -- and Joey & Edyta weren't among them.

The judges aren't going to give Joey high marks until he stops thinking so much when he's on the dance floor. His competitors all have enthusiastic fanbases, leaving Joey as vulnerable as anyone. He needs a string of great performances in order to stick around.

With so few teams left, one more sub-par performance could mean trouble for Joey & Edyta. On the other hand, they could still win the whole thing. That's how wide open this season is, which is one of the things to love about it.

4. Jerry Springer & Kym Johnson
Week after week, Jerry just keeps hanging around. What people (myself included) have overlooked is that there is actual dancing happening when he's on the floor. His routines with Kym aren't all gimmickry.

Voters may finally abandon Jerry if it looks like he might sneak into the final three ahead of the more talented performers. But after last week's Bottom Two scare, his fans might be motivated enough to keep him around through one more elimination, assuming he survives the Disco.

3. Emmitt Smith & Cheryl Burke
To a large degree, the judges' scores for this couple are as much a reflection of their opinion of Cheryl's choreography as for Emmitt's dancing ability. So long as he's good enough to pull off a fun, solid routine, that's all that really matters to the judges.

Emmitt's current fanbase is solid, so he and Cheryl need to keep crafting winning routines to add to that fanbase. All it might take is one routine as well-timed and compelling as Cheryl's "Thriller" Paso Doble from last season, and Emmitt could run away with the title.

2. Monique Coleman & Louis van Amstel
As the last woman standing, Monique's should gain a lot of votes from people who don't want to see the girl power disappear from the show completely.

Carrie Ann spelled out exactly what Monique's problem has been so far. Though she's as talented as anyone in the competition (except maybe Mario) she's not connecting with her audience emotionally.

I'm expecting this week to be Monique's defining moment. In her post-show comments last week, Monique was upbeat and said she understood what she has to do to reach out to people. If she's finally able to start doing that this week, she's on her way to the finals. If not, I've got her ranked three spots too high.

1. Mario Lopez & Karina Smirnoff
Even more than his impressive dancing skills, Mario's loyal fans seem most impressed with his looks. Or maybe it's his dancing that's made him so attractive. In any case, he's the clear frontrunner at this point. The bad thing about being the frontrunner is that there's nowhere else to go but backward.

Mario's attitude toward the judges, disregard for the rules in some instances, and even his past history have turned off potential voters. As other competitors are eliminated, there's a chance that fans of the eliminated couple will offer their allegiance to somebody perceived as more likable -- like Emmitt or Monique.

But Mario is so good, he seems the one lock to make it to the final show, and that's why I have him ranked at the top. However, at this point last season, Stacy Keibler looked unbeatable, too.

Other DwtS News:
Big news from Maksim Chmerkovskiy's website. There will be a Dancing with the Stars tour, tentatively slated for December through February, and Max and Willa will be participating. We're still waiting for confirmation from ABC... and looking forward to hearing which cities will be tour stops.

In Carrie Ann news, she's got a hunky young boyfriend: Artem from So You Think You Can Dance. And Carrie Ann also had some things to say about Willa's departure from the show.