DwtS In-Season Update: 9-18-06

Now that we've seen the DwtS 3 celebrities in action, it's time to revise the predictions I made before the season began. I'm 0-for-1 so far, as I had Shanna & Jesse going before Tucker & Elena. In my defense, that was before I saw Tucker dance.

Here's where I have the dancers slotted this week...

10. Shanna Moakler & Jesse DeSoto
Preseason Rank - 11
Shanna wasn't one of the better celeb dancers, and she had little chemistry with Jesse. On top of that, her tale of enduring a celebrity divorce wasn't compelling enough to help her escape the Bottom Three. The sob story route will wear even thinner as the weeks go on, so Shanna needs to exhibit some more personality (and dance better) if she means to stick around.

9. Willa Ford & Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Preseason Rank - 4
Despite tying for third with the judges, Willa still wound up in the bottom three, after the fan vote was added in. If we learned anything from Stacy Keibler's popularity problems near the end of last season, it's that DwtS fans are not easily beguiled by gorgeous blondes. Willa may be able to turn things around with a few weeks of perfect dancing, but she might not be given that much time. That would be too bad, since she danced well and seemed fun... and her partner is Max.

8. Harry Hamlin & Ashly DelGrosso
Preseason Rank - 1
I said that the only way Harry could lose is if he couldn't dance. Harry can't dance.

7. Monique Coleman & Louis van Amstel
Preseason Rank - 6
Monique seems like a nice girl and a competent dancer. She just may not have the chops or the star power to last long into the competition.

6. Jerry Springer & Kym Johnson
Preseason Rank - 8
After finishing in 9th place last week, Jerry needed a huge number of fan votes to stay out of the Bottom Three. He got the votes he needed, which should scare the sequins off of his competitors. Jerry's only way out may be to ask his fans to stop voting for him.

5. Joey Lawrence & Edyta Sliwinska
Preseason Rank - 7
Joey had a good first performance, but there's still room to improve. Now that they've seen the competition, it's up to Edyta to craft some show-stopping routines for Joey.

4. Sara Evans & Tony Dovolani
Preseason Rank - 3
Sara had an even lower score than Jerry. Yet she, too, avoided the Bottom Three thanks to an active fanbase. Sara was a little nervous in her first outing, but she's got enough potential -- and enough fans around the country -- that she should stick around for a long time. Tony is still the key; he needs to adjust and choreograph to his partner's strengths. Sara Evans isn't Stacy Keibler, but she doesn't have to be.

3. Vivica A. Fox & Nick Kosovich
Preseason Rank - 2
Vivica gave a wonderful performance last week, and she looks to be the alpha female of the competition. She's also the biggest star in the field, and I'd guess she has enough support to fend off fan favorites like Jerry and Sara, who don't dance at the same level.

2. Emmitt Smith & Cheryl Burke
Preseason Rank - 5
Jerry Rice finished in second place last season, and he's not even as good a dancer as Emmitt is. Emmitt's popularity and talent should keep the other celebrities on their toes; one wrong move, and Emmitt could win the whole thing. If he remains the fan favorite, all Emmitt has to do is survive to the final three, and then come in second with the judges. Since the fan votes are the tiebreaker, Emmitt would get the trophy.

1. Mario Lopez & Karina Smirnoff
Preseason Rank - 9
For now, I have to rank the season's best dancer in the number one spot. However, there are rumors floating around that Mario's had extensive dance training, contradicting what he said on last week's show. Couple that news with the fact that his cheating ways led his wife to divorce him in less than one week, and Mario could lose a good chunk of his fan support. He needs to be perfect from here on out to stay in the top spot.


In Other DwtS News:
If you placed a bet that Jerry Springer & Kym Johnson were the most likely pair to succumb to a season-ending injury, you'd be right. But it was Kym who blew out her knee during practice, not Jerry. Kym's out of the competition, and Jerry is currently training with Nick Kosovich's wife. We'll find out tomorrow night if she'll be his partner for the remainder of the season.

Fans of Cheryl Burke will get an extra chance to see her this week, as she guest stars on an episode of The Suite Life of Zack & Cody on the Disney Channel. The episode, which airs on Thursday, September 22, also features some routines choreographed by Louis van Amstel.

Cheryl's former partner, Drew Lachey, will be the special guest on the October 4 DwtS Results Show.

Tucker Carlson revealed in an interview why he danced so poorly last week. He was rattled because his shirt had been sewn to his underwear in order to keep the shirt from coming untucked during the performance. I'd probably have trouble dancing under those conditions, myself.