Never Discount the Gay Mormon

Who would have thought that Rafe would be one of the power players on Survivor: Guatemala? He has crazy hair and couldn't pull himself up a ladder in the first episode. Yet he's won three Individual Immunity Challenges and is part of a seemingly unstoppable alliance.

He's assured of a spot in the final four by sticking with his current alliance of Cindy, Judd, and Stephenie. But if he wants to take his fate into his own hands, he has options.

Rafe's best chance to win is to give the appearance that he's loyal to his alliance. He needs to direct them to get rid of Lydia next, which shouldn't be a problem because of the animosity between Steph and Lydia.

Next, he needs assurances from both Cindy and Danni that, should either of them win the last Immunity Challenge, they will bring him to the final Tribal Council. Cindy and Rafe have a preexisting agreement, so he'll need to make the deal with Danni on the side. He has to tell both Danni and Cindy that she's his pick if he wins the last Immunity Challenge. It's up to him to decide to whom he's lying.

Then the trio of Rafe, Cindy, and Danni can take out Steph and Judd, allowing Rafe to waltz into the final two. Although Rafe is a Mormon and I can't remember if they're allowed to dance. Maybe it's more of a respectful shuffle into the last Tribal Council.

I've got to hand it to Rafe, he's really won me over. It's fun to see a likeable, everyman character be a force in the challenges. And it's smart that he paired with Cindy. She's kind of buff, but her quiet temperament could lead people to overlook her. However, she won tonight's Reward Challenge quiz, and she's been competitive in a lot of the physical challenges. At this point, she's just as likely to win a challenge as any of her competitors.

And as cheesy as it may be, I'd like someone who's likeable to win. Lydia is a dud except when she's doing The Pancake, and Steph and Danni will make lots of money as a result of having been on the show, so they don't need it. As much as I like Judd, I don't know if I could stand watching him in front of the jury. His answer to every question would be, "Hey, man, it's a game, man. Don't call me a liar, man."

At least if Rafe wins, the money would go to someone who's a good sportsmanship. Man.