Who Bakes Those Cakes?

This may be the most interesting week of Rock Star shows yet. Tonight's non-performance show kicked things off as INXS interviewed each contestant individually. The interviews, along with the subsequent conversation between the band mates, led me to some conclusions:

1) Mig doesn't have a chance. The band didn't seem that impressed with him and they've never had a chance to hear him perform an INXS song. He was assigned the song "Paint It, Black" by the Rolling Stones, a move designed to make him look so uncool that his fans in Australia and New Zealand won't want to save him. But even if he makes Bottom 3 this week, he'll probably make the finals because...

2) Marty's next to go. Everyone in INXS agrees that he's a good performer, but they also think he'll need a lot of work to fit in with the band. It didn't help that he's already mapped out the band's future all by himself, should he win. They gave him the song "Creep" by Radiohead and a reprise of his original, "Trees," as going away present.

3) INXS is divided into pro-Suzie and pro-J.D. camps. Andrew and Garry are solidly in the pro-Suzie camp; Garry thinks she's the best singer and Andrew would like to write songs for her. The pro-J.D. camp is made up of Tim, Jon and Pengilly, but I don't think any of them are totally sold on him. All three of them like J.D.'s edginess, but they all admit he's got problems. However, Andrew thinks J.D. isn't completely trustworthy or honest and is totally against him; recall that last week, when INXS asked J.D. where he'd take the band musically, he responded, "Into my heart." Since Andrew is the band's primary songwriter, his word may prevail, in which case J.D's out and Suzie's in.

Using the probability skills I honed as a Mathlete in high school, I've deduced that there are four possible ways the voting could turn out after Tuesday night's performance show. Here's who goes if the Bottom 3 is:

J.D., Marty, Mig (Suzie's safe) - Marty's out
J.D., Marty, Suzie (Mig's safe) - Marty's out
J.D., Mig, Suzie (Marty's safe) - Mig's out
Marty, Mig, Suzie (J.D.'s safe) - Marty's out